Tulsi Gabbard just endorsed Trump. RFK Jr says there will be more. Others will follow, if they see that they are not outliers.
The polls are going to make the election devilishly difficult to fix, but then where is the biggest concentration of devils, eh? IMO, there are few things more dangerous than an entity believing it has the right to use evil means to justify their (evil) ends. Just look at how many Dems expressed disappointment that the bullet missed, and I have seen interviews where a Dem says hopefully Trump will still be assassinated. Not the company I would keep.
The only policy positions she even mentioned, from what I've seen, were more war in Ukraine and more genocide in Gaza. Other than that, her whole campaign's just vibes, and artificial vibes at that.
Worse. Trump has no history of imposing censorship, and no signs that he wishes to do so. He seems genuinely squeamish about war by recent presidential standards, so I think if there is anyone running with a chance of winning who would be likely to eventually cut off arms to Israel, that somebody is Donald Trump.
Vance is in tune with Ohio voters on foreign policy, so he's more persuadable than Walz, who wouldn't have been picked if there was the possibility of him giving a fuck. IMHO and all that.
No president -- Republican or Democrat -- will cut off aid and arms to Israel until Netanyahu says it's okay. We will send more troops (we already have naval in the Mediterranean and Special Forces on the ground in Gaza) when Netanyahu gives the order.
Here is the bitter truth: The government has fallen. We are an occupied, befuddled and frightened nation ruled by a foreign power. Need proof of that? Rewatch Netanyahu's State of the Union speech in Congress and all those craven politicians cumming in their pants to get a photo with Netanyahu. Even the 100 who "protested" by not attending have reliably voted for every weapons appropriation for Israel.
No, OB, Israel, through its Intel agents at AIPAC, Netanyahu and his fascist cabinet, are running the US and it's gonna get a whole lot worse when the broader war kicks off. What our massaged and paid for "leaders" say or do is totally irrelevant.
IF a broader war kicks off, not when. You don’t know that, and there is a lot of powerful opposition in our oligarchy to a regional war.
The Zionists do not always get their way in the imperial capital, even though it seems like it. If they did, we would have been at war with Iran 6 or 7 years ago.
We have been ... low level and simmering. We have supported every Israeli action against Iran. The Israelis have been pushing for war on Iran for decades and when Netanyahu finally demands it we will bend over and do it. Do you really think Biden/Harris/Trump and Congress will say no? Do you think that gelatinous blob that jumped up to give Netanyahu 58 standing ovations during his State of the Union speech to Congress will say no when Netanyahu and AIPAC say it's time to jump in.
Nah, AIPAC and JStreet money do all the talking ... and decision making.
Are you following the news of US Naval and military movements in the eastern Mediterranean, Gaza, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq? Did you see this?
We are doomed unless somehow we can get AIPAC listed as agents of a foreign government, which they are. I think Massey at least would be on board with that, anyone want to start a petition?
We would be petitioning a totally corrupt and purchased system. Notice how Hunter Biden is still cheerfully strutting around? IMO, the whole governmental edifice is a sham and a front.
Not that it matter who anyone likes, or votes for. As long as the voters aren't allowed to COUNT the ballots for themselves--which is the case in 80% of the country--TPTB will pick whoever THEY like. If we really want to make a difference, we need to stop lending this charade legitimacy by our participation. The "winners" will look really silly claiming they got "a mandate from the voters" when only 10% of the electorate voted. https://www.thepolemicist.net/2016/09/strike-vote.html
I know. I just do this for fun, really. I emphasize my love of history, but I did also major in political science back in the day before the postmodernists completely ruined everything about it except the statistical shit, like polling.
I got 49 out of 50 states right in 2020 with this little formula of mine, and I am curious whether or not it will hold up this year as well. This sort of electoral projection has become a hobby of mine over the years.
Right now I have no intention of voting. If I do vote, I'll write in Cthulhu because why choose the lesser evil in a system which is subject to fraud?
If my state of Michigan goes for Skamala I will be beyond disappointed.
I am hardly a Trump fan boi, I get that he is a vain, non too bright easily swayed by sycopahants narcasist deeply tied to genocidal Zionists. But since America seems to be reduced to vibe checking , the vibe I get from Skamala is she will be all in on censorship and two wars the Russia proxy war and the genocide. As much as it pains me to say this I hope Trump wins and I have a little more confidence in him if Bobby Kennedy is involved especially in staffing which Bobby said he would help with in his latest Tucker Carlson interview. I was a mutualist anarchist for decades, and the last time I remember voting it was for Green Cynthia McKinney. I have shifted rightward, at least culturally, but I never thought I would wind up supporting a GOP candidate for President.
The only reason I have Michigan tilting, not leaning like Minnesota, towards $kamala is because Rasmussen had her up by a point. There are polls showing her leading by 6 or 7% but they are all funded by Democratic PACs or are associated with Democrat-friendly media. They were way wrong in both 2016 and 2020.
RFK Jr endorsing Trump will have an impact in Michigan. I expect Trump to gain at least 2%, maybe 4, from that. If the Arabs, who are a couple of per cent of the usual Michigan electorate, just sit this one out that will drop $kamala another few points.
Plus I am sure a LOT of Black men will not vote for her, and at least 20% of them nationally will vote for Trump.
I really don't think Michigan will go for $kamala, and if it does because a lot of last minute ballots suddenly appeared, it will be glaringly obvious who rigged what.
The real message of this polling is that people cannot be awakened to the fact that elections are fiction. Are there any writers anywhere other than me starting from that premise? I'm trying to find people to follow who have moved past the reality TV show.
Look I am not saying they aren't all in the bag for billionaires of course they are. What I am saying is that the billionaires backing Kamala are more globalist in their orientation and thus care about Americans less and are more likely to institute draconian speech controls and a NATO war against Russia and the BRICS nations.
I get this is not a popular thing to say to super cyncial more communist then though ultra purist radicals. But at the end of the day I have to live in the real material world, one of the two bought and sold political parties will win and I believe as a rural white poor American with hard right social views, and fairly left economic views, that my life will be worse under under a Harris administration. I believe while it will be bad under Trump that I may have more time to put in a garden and woodstove and get fully off the grid.
It's not that you are wrong, it's that some of us are barely hanging on, and even a slight material worsening of conditions means we fall off the cliff. If Skamala for example institutes woke British style social media censorship my Substack and likely all of Substack is over, and my Substack and the art I sell here is half my income.
Am I going to put up a Trump yard sign and door knock for him? Of course not he is scummy pro genocide Zionist beholden ruling class oligarch. I will however vote for him, and then move on with my real life future proofing against imperial collapse.
There's a story like that behind a LOT of Trump voters. The only people I will condemn for voting or not voting are the ones who vote for $kamala. Either they materially benefit from Empire, which makes them vampires, or they are the most arrogantly stupid suckers in the history OF THE WORLD!
I'm really not sure which is worse, but I'll do everything I can to persuade anybody I can just not to vote for $kamala, Certified Borg Drone of the Empire.
The point is that "billionaire" just means "bank employee" I only see one conflict at that scale, bank controlled territory and not.
You don't have ANY say in who "wins." It's scripted. Figure out which one the banks want more and that's who has already been chosen.
Seriously, I see no evidence of any game beyond that. I'm homeless but for a friend's couch. I know all about the cliff. I haven't had income for over 20 years.
She’s still the prohibitive favorite. If you have to throw a mulligan into your election forecast, you aren’t making a realistic forecast. Polling methodologies are already tweaked to correct for prior cycle’s errors. And they clearly are going to just keep her under wraps until after the election to avoid any problems on that front. She’s 10:1 favorite. Hope for a miracle.
No, polling methodologies still haven't been able to reach a lot of Trump voters for a very simple and unchangeable reason--they don't trust pollsters.
10:1? I'll take that bet. I'll risk $100. Are you willing to risk $1000?
I think "dark" is the best adjective for this one, LOL.
Seriously, I have some serious doubts about the competence of our deep state. They're so corrupt, so arrogant, and so immersed in their own idiotic ideologies that they are quite capable of doing idiotic and self-defeating things.
I can hear Lenin screaming that's why we need organization. He's got a point, too, even if he is a blackhearted authoritarian spalpeen.
Yes I'll confess that as youngster I was an idealist anarchist, but as an oldster that of the hard left tendencies that tankies strike me as the most grounded in reality.
Groan, I thought you were talking about vote fraud or something, yes the threat there is real, and personal to me living in Michigan. All of northern Michigan where I live will vote for Trump, but all of Detroit, Ann Arbor , Lansing, and Flint and Saginaw will vote for Camel Toe, and there probably are more of them, sigh.
Strangely enough I think the Camel will win.Not because she’s any good,but because people are desperate.They want something/someone to believe in.Obama 2.0.
I think too many people have seen throug the Democrats' illusions, especially Black men, and more Black women than is known. 50,000 people were released from prison because of Trump's Step Act(I think that's the name of it), and many of them were Black men.
That's a lot of people directly impacted by Biden/Cop Harris and Trump in starkly different ways, and many of them live in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. They'll vote for Trump this year, and they are not considered likely voters.
I went to our local jazz festival today, a great way to groove and see who loves music, and feel the general vibe of my older, yet jazz loving demographic, and the communities people of color. We here are trying to hang in there in the East suburbs of Pittsburgh, PA. Of course, there were tents around the festival, but some of them were political to register and vote R's and D. I was with my dyed-in-the-wool BlueMAGA sister, who I do love, but as I sat and gyrated, she said she was absolutely CONVINCED that Kamala will win in a LANDSLIDE. I noticed that people walking around avoided engaging in the D's call to "Vote like your life depended on it!". The way I see it, our life is gonna end up depending on ourselves to not only feel the vibe of R&B, and serious call and return of what each instrument is saying, but we're gonna depend on seeing everything that has been hounding with a little more clarity to avoid all hate and war we're being marketed to do to the "other". I think our club of "uncommitted" is gonna grow. We already know the other club is one that we ain't in.
Kamala will not win in a landslide; I guarantee you that. I don't think she's going to win at all. Bill Clinton described her best when he was talking about something else: "There's no there there."
I could be wrong of course, but I think your home state will go for Trump this time. And the key county, of course, will be Erie.
And I'm jealous. A jazz festival would have been very nice indeed. I was in the frickin' office.
Tulsi Gabbard just endorsed Trump. RFK Jr says there will be more. Others will follow, if they see that they are not outliers.
The polls are going to make the election devilishly difficult to fix, but then where is the biggest concentration of devils, eh? IMO, there are few things more dangerous than an entity believing it has the right to use evil means to justify their (evil) ends. Just look at how many Dems expressed disappointment that the bullet missed, and I have seen interviews where a Dem says hopefully Trump will still be assassinated. Not the company I would keep.
And still no campaign platform positions on the $kamala/Walz Campaign website. All you will find are multiple ways to donate money and cute merch.
The only policy positions she even mentioned, from what I've seen, were more war in Ukraine and more genocide in Gaza. Other than that, her whole campaign's just vibes, and artificial vibes at that.
Democrats love the vibes of American 2,000-lb "baby buster" bombs.
If she wins she will be every bit as tyrannical as Trump.
Probably more so as she supports the NATO/U.S. proxy war against Russia and is all in on British style censorship of social media.
Worse. Trump has no history of imposing censorship, and no signs that he wishes to do so. He seems genuinely squeamish about war by recent presidential standards, so I think if there is anyone running with a chance of winning who would be likely to eventually cut off arms to Israel, that somebody is Donald Trump.
Vance is in tune with Ohio voters on foreign policy, so he's more persuadable than Walz, who wouldn't have been picked if there was the possibility of him giving a fuck. IMHO and all that.
No president -- Republican or Democrat -- will cut off aid and arms to Israel until Netanyahu says it's okay. We will send more troops (we already have naval in the Mediterranean and Special Forces on the ground in Gaza) when Netanyahu gives the order.
Here is the bitter truth: The government has fallen. We are an occupied, befuddled and frightened nation ruled by a foreign power. Need proof of that? Rewatch Netanyahu's State of the Union speech in Congress and all those craven politicians cumming in their pants to get a photo with Netanyahu. Even the 100 who "protested" by not attending have reliably voted for every weapons appropriation for Israel.
No, OB, Israel, through its Intel agents at AIPAC, Netanyahu and his fascist cabinet, are running the US and it's gonna get a whole lot worse when the broader war kicks off. What our massaged and paid for "leaders" say or do is totally irrelevant.
Further evidence of who/what is in charge of the US: https://www.commondreams.org/news/50000-tons-israel
IF a broader war kicks off, not when. You don’t know that, and there is a lot of powerful opposition in our oligarchy to a regional war.
The Zionists do not always get their way in the imperial capital, even though it seems like it. If they did, we would have been at war with Iran 6 or 7 years ago.
We have been ... low level and simmering. We have supported every Israeli action against Iran. The Israelis have been pushing for war on Iran for decades and when Netanyahu finally demands it we will bend over and do it. Do you really think Biden/Harris/Trump and Congress will say no? Do you think that gelatinous blob that jumped up to give Netanyahu 58 standing ovations during his State of the Union speech to Congress will say no when Netanyahu and AIPAC say it's time to jump in.
Nah, AIPAC and JStreet money do all the talking ... and decision making.
Are you following the news of US Naval and military movements in the eastern Mediterranean, Gaza, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq? Did you see this?
"'Deeply Complicit': US Has Sent Israel Over 50,000 Tons of Weaponry in 11 Months" ... that ain't just for tiny Gaza. https://www.commondreams.org/news/50000-tons-israel
Don't believe anything in the mainstream corporate media. Search out alternative sources.
We are doomed unless somehow we can get AIPAC listed as agents of a foreign government, which they are. I think Massey at least would be on board with that, anyone want to start a petition?
We would be petitioning a totally corrupt and purchased system. Notice how Hunter Biden is still cheerfully strutting around? IMO, the whole governmental edifice is a sham and a front.
Thank you - I always look forward to your election analyses!
Not that it matter who anyone likes, or votes for. As long as the voters aren't allowed to COUNT the ballots for themselves--which is the case in 80% of the country--TPTB will pick whoever THEY like. If we really want to make a difference, we need to stop lending this charade legitimacy by our participation. The "winners" will look really silly claiming they got "a mandate from the voters" when only 10% of the electorate voted. https://www.thepolemicist.net/2016/09/strike-vote.html
I know. I just do this for fun, really. I emphasize my love of history, but I did also major in political science back in the day before the postmodernists completely ruined everything about it except the statistical shit, like polling.
I got 49 out of 50 states right in 2020 with this little formula of mine, and I am curious whether or not it will hold up this year as well. This sort of electoral projection has become a hobby of mine over the years.
Right now I have no intention of voting. If I do vote, I'll write in Cthulhu because why choose the lesser evil in a system which is subject to fraud?
Yeah, well, if you do vote for Cthulhu, your vote will probably be counted for Harris or Trump, that's all.
Which is an excellent reason not to vote at all.
BINGO!
If my state of Michigan goes for Skamala I will be beyond disappointed.
I am hardly a Trump fan boi, I get that he is a vain, non too bright easily swayed by sycopahants narcasist deeply tied to genocidal Zionists. But since America seems to be reduced to vibe checking , the vibe I get from Skamala is she will be all in on censorship and two wars the Russia proxy war and the genocide. As much as it pains me to say this I hope Trump wins and I have a little more confidence in him if Bobby Kennedy is involved especially in staffing which Bobby said he would help with in his latest Tucker Carlson interview. I was a mutualist anarchist for decades, and the last time I remember voting it was for Green Cynthia McKinney. I have shifted rightward, at least culturally, but I never thought I would wind up supporting a GOP candidate for President.
The only reason I have Michigan tilting, not leaning like Minnesota, towards $kamala is because Rasmussen had her up by a point. There are polls showing her leading by 6 or 7% but they are all funded by Democratic PACs or are associated with Democrat-friendly media. They were way wrong in both 2016 and 2020.
RFK Jr endorsing Trump will have an impact in Michigan. I expect Trump to gain at least 2%, maybe 4, from that. If the Arabs, who are a couple of per cent of the usual Michigan electorate, just sit this one out that will drop $kamala another few points.
Plus I am sure a LOT of Black men will not vote for her, and at least 20% of them nationally will vote for Trump.
I really don't think Michigan will go for $kamala, and if it does because a lot of last minute ballots suddenly appeared, it will be glaringly obvious who rigged what.
The real message of this polling is that people cannot be awakened to the fact that elections are fiction. Are there any writers anywhere other than me starting from that premise? I'm trying to find people to follow who have moved past the reality TV show.
Look I am not saying they aren't all in the bag for billionaires of course they are. What I am saying is that the billionaires backing Kamala are more globalist in their orientation and thus care about Americans less and are more likely to institute draconian speech controls and a NATO war against Russia and the BRICS nations.
I get this is not a popular thing to say to super cyncial more communist then though ultra purist radicals. But at the end of the day I have to live in the real material world, one of the two bought and sold political parties will win and I believe as a rural white poor American with hard right social views, and fairly left economic views, that my life will be worse under under a Harris administration. I believe while it will be bad under Trump that I may have more time to put in a garden and woodstove and get fully off the grid.
It's not that you are wrong, it's that some of us are barely hanging on, and even a slight material worsening of conditions means we fall off the cliff. If Skamala for example institutes woke British style social media censorship my Substack and likely all of Substack is over, and my Substack and the art I sell here is half my income.
Am I going to put up a Trump yard sign and door knock for him? Of course not he is scummy pro genocide Zionist beholden ruling class oligarch. I will however vote for him, and then move on with my real life future proofing against imperial collapse.
There's a story like that behind a LOT of Trump voters. The only people I will condemn for voting or not voting are the ones who vote for $kamala. Either they materially benefit from Empire, which makes them vampires, or they are the most arrogantly stupid suckers in the history OF THE WORLD!
I'm really not sure which is worse, but I'll do everything I can to persuade anybody I can just not to vote for $kamala, Certified Borg Drone of the Empire.
I totally respect not voting, I haven't voted for 12 or 16 years, it's been so long I forget. :-)
The point is that "billionaire" just means "bank employee" I only see one conflict at that scale, bank controlled territory and not.
You don't have ANY say in who "wins." It's scripted. Figure out which one the banks want more and that's who has already been chosen.
Seriously, I see no evidence of any game beyond that. I'm homeless but for a friend's couch. I know all about the cliff. I haven't had income for over 20 years.
/sigh
She’s still the prohibitive favorite. If you have to throw a mulligan into your election forecast, you aren’t making a realistic forecast. Polling methodologies are already tweaked to correct for prior cycle’s errors. And they clearly are going to just keep her under wraps until after the election to avoid any problems on that front. She’s 10:1 favorite. Hope for a miracle.
No, polling methodologies still haven't been able to reach a lot of Trump voters for a very simple and unchangeable reason--they don't trust pollsters.
10:1? I'll take that bet. I'll risk $100. Are you willing to risk $1000?
You might want to consider first the rumor that the judge will jail Trump in September.
I can see that coming, because they tried everything else already, including a bullet.
In the end it does not matter who gets into the white house, because its power has
been successfully reduced to theater for the plebs; and the Congress has been
sold or extorted. Thus both wars will continued with a third one in sight. I'll vote for
Stein , for nobody in the Congress, and on local referenda. It does not matter.
I doubt it, but if they do, Trump will win in a landslide. I think they took their best shot in Pennsylvania on July 13th.
That's some black or eerrrr should I say African American humor, lol!
I think "dark" is the best adjective for this one, LOL.
Seriously, I have some serious doubts about the competence of our deep state. They're so corrupt, so arrogant, and so immersed in their own idiotic ideologies that they are quite capable of doing idiotic and self-defeating things.
I can hear Lenin screaming that's why we need organization. He's got a point, too, even if he is a blackhearted authoritarian spalpeen.
Yes I'll confess that as youngster I was an idealist anarchist, but as an oldster that of the hard left tendencies that tankies strike me as the most grounded in reality.
Still a shame about Kronstadt tho. :-(
Black female new registrants to vote up 175%. In a tight election that’s insurmountable, as every single one will vote D.
Just where do you get that number? And don't count on the election being tight.
He pulled it out of his ass, lol!
Wish I had.
https://youtu.be/GkAGX9mp3Sk?si=4OeiCl2IQJm718pL
Groan, I thought you were talking about vote fraud or something, yes the threat there is real, and personal to me living in Michigan. All of northern Michigan where I live will vote for Trump, but all of Detroit, Ann Arbor , Lansing, and Flint and Saginaw will vote for Camel Toe, and there probably are more of them, sigh.
CBS? I do not believe them. How do they know that? It's not as if race is on a ballot application.
It won’t be close.
https://youtu.be/GkAGX9mp3Sk?si=YxXRGJ8QpOsNEs9S
They will artfully draw the water mark they need…
Strangely enough I think the Camel will win.Not because she’s any good,but because people are desperate.They want something/someone to believe in.Obama 2.0.
Or they are going to cheat.
I think it's a given they will try. I mean, they already tried to jail the guy and then kill him, so cheating's nothing in comparison.
I think too many people have seen throug the Democrats' illusions, especially Black men, and more Black women than is known. 50,000 people were released from prison because of Trump's Step Act(I think that's the name of it), and many of them were Black men.
That's a lot of people directly impacted by Biden/Cop Harris and Trump in starkly different ways, and many of them live in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. They'll vote for Trump this year, and they are not considered likely voters.
I went to our local jazz festival today, a great way to groove and see who loves music, and feel the general vibe of my older, yet jazz loving demographic, and the communities people of color. We here are trying to hang in there in the East suburbs of Pittsburgh, PA. Of course, there were tents around the festival, but some of them were political to register and vote R's and D. I was with my dyed-in-the-wool BlueMAGA sister, who I do love, but as I sat and gyrated, she said she was absolutely CONVINCED that Kamala will win in a LANDSLIDE. I noticed that people walking around avoided engaging in the D's call to "Vote like your life depended on it!". The way I see it, our life is gonna end up depending on ourselves to not only feel the vibe of R&B, and serious call and return of what each instrument is saying, but we're gonna depend on seeing everything that has been hounding with a little more clarity to avoid all hate and war we're being marketed to do to the "other". I think our club of "uncommitted" is gonna grow. We already know the other club is one that we ain't in.
Kamala will not win in a landslide; I guarantee you that. I don't think she's going to win at all. Bill Clinton described her best when he was talking about something else: "There's no there there."
I could be wrong of course, but I think your home state will go for Trump this time. And the key county, of course, will be Erie.
And I'm jealous. A jazz festival would have been very nice indeed. I was in the frickin' office.