The Tuesday Follies: Kamala's High Water Mark Still Comes Up Short
An analysis of the state polls
Well, the joyous religious revival the Democults called a political convention is over, Nate Silver is saying there is a 58% chance $kamala will win the election, and the corporate state media is already trying to make her look inevitable.
She’s not. Not by a long shot.
The map below is based on the polls now found in Real Clear Politics, adjusted for the fact that most have undercounted Trump voters for the last 8 years.
Please note that none of these polls were taken after RFK Jr. endorsed Trump, which will certainly help him, at least a little.
What’s left of the Democratic base is now in enthusiastic lockstep for the most exciting DEI candidate ever. They have solidified New England for Harris, made things closer in most of the swing states, and have put her into a very precarious lead in Michigan and Virginia.
But the majority of the polls still show Trump even or slightly ahead in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona, even without my little adjustment for those missed Trump supporters. They do show Harris up a smidgeon in Wisconsin, but my formula still has it leaning towards Trump.
IOW, the post-convention bounce is missing some air.
I think we’ll see $kamala start to fade after Labor Day, when more voters will start paying a little serious attention to her. It won’t take much. She will always be just one inappropriate giggle, bad interview, or blown debate performance away from a downward spiral, which is why her campaign is doing everything it can to prevent her from straying from the teleprompter and doing something catastrophic like trying to think on her feet.
If I’m right, this should be noticeable no later than the beginning of October.
We shall see. Right now I’ll give you $kamala and spot you 20 Electoral College votes. I’ll check in again in a couple of weeks.
Thank you for reading, good day or night, and good luck.
If you appreciate my scribbling, please consider a monthly subscription or one-time donation by buying me a beer so I can keep scribbling.
Tulsi Gabbard just endorsed Trump. RFK Jr says there will be more. Others will follow, if they see that they are not outliers.
The polls are going to make the election devilishly difficult to fix, but then where is the biggest concentration of devils, eh? IMO, there are few things more dangerous than an entity believing it has the right to use evil means to justify their (evil) ends. Just look at how many Dems expressed disappointment that the bullet missed, and I have seen interviews where a Dem says hopefully Trump will still be assassinated. Not the company I would keep.
And still no campaign platform positions on the $kamala/Walz Campaign website. All you will find are multiple ways to donate money and cute merch.