The Tuesday Follies

A gambler's guide to the US presidential election

Since I am firmly convinced that only a real revolution will make any meaningful change in this country, I thought I’d help the gamblers out there anywhere in the world who might want to place a bet on our quadrennial Olympic Political Game, because why not?

And do something for the political junkies out there, just for fun.

IOW, I’m treating this election every bit as seriously as I do the NFL playoffs if I decide to place a wager on the Super Bowl contestants, no more and no less, and I ain’t rich, so I do bet to win. I’ll take a look at the polls every once in awhile, make a new map, and note any changes.

If the election were held tomorrow, I believe the Electoral College map would look like this from a gambler’s perspective(Harris is bluish, Trump is reddish),

My map is based on the Real Clear Politics polling averages per state, adjusted by my own new-and-improved formula to take into account how different polling organizations have consistently undercounted Trump voters and overcounted Democratic ones since 2016, on top of what little I learned obtaining a political science degree plus watching polling very closely since 2000.

I might be wrong, but my model is based on how far off the polls were in 2016, and it got 48 states right in 2020, so why not shoot for 50 this year?

Besides, I like maps.

I’ll do this on Tuesdays only, and not every Tuesday until maybe October.

As for this map, dark red or blue means that I’d bet a month’s pay on those states going for my selected candidate. Medium means one biweekly paycheck is on the line. Light means I’ll bet a pint of my favorite beer.

Grayish means I don’t know enough to make a guess.

Let’s go through the colors. I have seen no reason to think any of the dark red or blue ones will flip. Some have recent polls, some don’t, but I don’t think they’ll change.

Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia all had Trump leading before Biden dropped out, and all have recent polls. In spite of all the hype about Kamelot and the frantic Black Girl Makeover they’re doing on Kamala, those states are still Trump’s to lose.

Harris may have gotten a bit of a bump in Wisconsin and Nevada, but it’s way too early to say whether or not it’s a trend.

Minnesota, Virginia and New Hamphsire had the biggest swings in Harris’ favor, so she at least has a shot at holding on to those three normally Democratic states.

I have seen zero data since Biden dropped out from Colorado, New Mexico, New York, or New Jersey, but Trump was within 3 points of Biden in Jersey, 8 in New York, and slightly ahead in New Mexico. A recent CNN poll showed Trump with a small lead over Harris with Hispanics nationally, so I don’t believe any of the Rocky Mountain states are in the bag for the Democrats.

I don’t have a clue about Maine or Omaha.

Time will tell, but I anticipate Harris’ numbers will go up, some, through next month, and then they’ll start to decline as voters learn more about her and she Hillaryizes herself with inappropriate giggling and vast quantities of word salad whenever put on the spot.

Let’s see if I’m right, and gamblers, I really will endeavor to give you the best bet possible.

Thank you for reading, good day or night, and good luck.