40 Comments
User's avatar
Andy Dean's avatar

>They will have to rely on Trump to make some monumental blunder

Like, dying. That's gotta do it.

All in all, thank you for composing those charts so tirelessly!

Expand full comment
djean111's avatar

I think that if the mushrooming assassination attempts succeed, the Dems will lose in a landslide.

Even if I take into account that we actually have a uni-party, Dems just disgust me more and more each day. As a Floridian, I am disgusted by the way Harris attempted to politicize the hurricanes for campaign purposes. That's really all disasters are to the Dems at this point - campaign opportunities.

Expand full comment
Andy Dean's avatar

Well, New Orleans worked to that end back in the day, and American corporativism is nothing if not fawning over best practices.

Expand full comment
Ohio Barbarian's avatar

But more importantly than any of that, you're OK and have your power back! All sorts of people kept asking me if I'd heard from you.

I agree with you on the assassination scenario. The backlash would be...most interesting. Maybe TOO interesting. In any case, they're running out of time.

Expand full comment
djean111's avatar

I feel relatively unscathed, and I really really appreciate everyone who asked after me. I lucked out in where I bought my home/house. Not a matter of clever research, because I would always rather live near a beach - this was really what I could afford to pay cash, quick to close, and not too far to move stuff. Lot of fixing up to do. Just think - all that happened to me was that I was inconvenienced. Don't have water, though, the pumps for this place had no power, so they were running them on propane, and ran out of propane. NextDoor is full of whingers, evidently some think gasoline can just be pumped from a truck into a car, no electricity needed. And I bet a lot of smaller stores will be buying generators. Weird problem closer to the gulf, with folks ransacking all the piles of stuff from Helene.

Be interesting to see what happens with insurance here. The policy I had when I had a mortgage was one of those Lloyd's of London thingies. If payouts are more than the premium pool, then everyone gets assessed in order to pay claims. Another reason I was glad to sell the house, because the premium was too much, and would be even more too much this year, and of course the insurance company takes a good bite out of premiums collected for fees and whatever. Hey, perhaps beachfront property will be affordable because no one will buy it unless they pay cash so they don't have to buy insurance. Actually, I am closing in on 79, and really want a tiny house with a courtyard in a warm climate. Just putter around all day, reading, internet, sunbathing, gardening, maybe doing the mosaic tile stuff I have always wanted to do.

By the way, I read about eight Le Carre books. Great stories. He really is dismissive of "waiters", as if that is some lower class. Mentioned "tufts of hair like horns ove the ears" a weird number of times. And had Trump Derangement Syndrome in his later books. Took shots at Trump even though nothing to do with the plot. But - his son finished Silverview, the last novel, and said his dad kept reworking it. He feels his dad recognized that all the spying and stuff is pretty much pointless and filled with infighting and turf wars. And there is actually a paragraph in the book that says the US feels it should control the Middle East, and will keep starting war after war, and the UK is just a lapdog. Could have read that right here.

Yes, I am lucky, and the hardest thing to do now is to replace the contents of my freezer. I expect that the trash bin situation this week will be quite odiferous.

Expand full comment
JohnT's avatar

The rising costs of insurance is driving me back to the great white north. I live within walking distance to the waters of the Lake of Mexico. Survived too many storms to try it again.

Not another hurricane season, but sitting out a wonderful winter down here is a real possibility.

Expand full comment
Mark Taylor's avatar

As some political commentator said years ago: "Never underestimate the ability of the Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory."

It's a party tradition.

Expand full comment
Ohio Barbarian's avatar

Oh, it is. The greatest exemplar of that unparalleled tradition is Hillary Clinton. "We can't make America great again because it's already great! Everything's hunky-dory, and if you don't see that you are a deplorably ignorant and bigoted person."

All $kamala's campaign, if you can call it that, is doing is a repeat of that hysterical defeat. Will we get to experience schadenfreude at liberal tears and prophecies of doom yet again? Will we be treated to another pussy hat protest?

At this point, my answer is "Probably."

Expand full comment
Andy Dean's avatar

What many people don't appreciate is how Game of Thrones ending contributed to her defeat. I mean, come on, it's a brilliant political message delivered flawlessly and in time: your favorite progressive and righteous female leader will take you on an unparalleled genocidal crusade and has to be stopped. Showrunners are unsung heroes who threw themselves under the bus for humanity.

Expand full comment
James Belcher's avatar

“Democrats have a Ph.D. in losing important elections.”

— Jeremy Scahill, Drop Site News

Expand full comment
Mark Taylor's avatar

None better at doing bad.

Wait until the 'whinefest' after the election.

Expand full comment
The Passionate Progressive's avatar

Electoral polling is just not my strength and you explain it so effortlessly. Added to the numbers is the recent Democratic Party attack on Jill Stein which can only help her campaign and Obama's blaming black men...Having said that I'm worried about an 'October surprise' as in Israel attacking Iran before the election and Iran's most certain response and US soldiers in harm's way. Not so much as caring about the election but what it portends around the globe.

Expand full comment
Ohio Barbarian's avatar

A late October surprise like that is certainly possible, but I don't think there would be a reflexive rallying round the flag like there was in 2001. It could even backfire on the Democrats.

As I've said before, Israel has already lost majority support in the United States. A "Vote for Kamala is a Vote for Israel" last minute campaign would definitely fail if Trump said just one word about how he would make a deal and end it, even if he was just spouting total BS.

Expand full comment
The Passionate Progressive's avatar

Totally true. In a recent brilliantly written essay, Professor Michael Brenner described the behaviors of US(Western) political elites as that of juveniles (5-10 yo age range) in how they act on fantasies, fail to see the consequences of their behaviors, lie, put themselves above the communities they represent among other traits and attributed it to Aquired Situational Narcissism, a term applied by psychiatrist Robert B. Millman...Certainly applies to both political parties....Though I do intend to vote for Stein who is on the Va. ballot and whom I hope will cross the 5% threshold, I find that whatever gains she would/could make would be a mere bandaid on the afflictions plaguing Western societies....The train left the station long ago....

Expand full comment
Serial Misfit's avatar

The only October surprise that has ever worked, was the Russian revolution. Jussayin' 😜

Expand full comment
Punditman's avatar

According to the Wapo, Bibi intends on attacking Iran before Nov. 5. Either because he thinks he has to due to the success of Iran's last limited missile barrage, which exposed Israeli vulnerabilities - or because the longer he waits the more it damages Israeli "credibility." Maybe both.

There's also that refueling issue, which Bibi needs the US to sign off on.

Bibi also knows that an attack before the election will benefit Trump, and that's who he wants to win. Timing is everything here. Get the popcorn out.

Expand full comment
Ohio Barbarian's avatar

Yes, it looks like he wants to drag the US into a war with Iran before anyone gets inaugurated, anyway. Oddly enough, it's time to cheer for the Pentagon and Big Oil. They are the factions of our oligarchy who are most opposed to a war with Iran, for very sound reasons.

Expand full comment
Gilgamech's avatar

That might actually explain the intel leaks of Israel’s detailed war plans - an attempt by the last sane person inside the DNI to forestall the US being dragged into world war?

Expand full comment
Nina's avatar

The point of Democrats is to lose and shift everyone to the right. It's called the rachet effect.

Expand full comment
Ohio Barbarian's avatar

I'll witness to that. First noticed it back in Clinton's day.

Expand full comment
Jacqueline Conway's avatar

She only has herself to blame, stating that she will support the zionist entity unconditionally. The rest of the world can see how unjust this is, but Killer Kamala will be the sme as Genocide Joe. That’s why she’s lost Michigan, for example.

Expand full comment
Ohio Barbarian's avatar

If anything, it's getting worse for her in Michigan by the day. Pennsylvania, too.

Expand full comment
Chknltl's avatar

According to KOMO NEWS, (ABC-Seattle) Harris and Trump are almost neck and neck. This is Washington State! It has been Blue for POTUS'S as long as I can remember. At 70, my memory stretches back a long time! While I do live in the rural part of Western Wa., (traditionally Red Team leaning), I have seen precious few Harris/ Waltz signs or stickers anywhere in Tacoma or Seattle and none throughout the rural area I live in. Back when Hillary was running, there were a few signs and bumper stickers supporting her near my home and tons of them throughout the Seattle/Tacoma area. Knowing that Eastern Washington is solidly Red Team and most of rural Western Wa. is as well, I wonder about the chances of this State flipping Red Team on this election.

Expand full comment
Ohio Barbarian's avatar

Fascinating. None of the poll gatherers like RCP have mentioned that one. Thanks!

Expand full comment
Boguslawa El Cheikh's avatar

What about 3th party candidates, have any of them any chance of winning in any swing state?

Expand full comment
Ohio Barbarian's avatar

That is a good question. Unfortunately, the answer is No. None of them will even hit 5% in any state. Most Americans don't take third party candidates seriously when they've even heard of them. The media doesn't exactly talk about them much.

Expand full comment
Boguslawa El Cheikh's avatar

Thank you for explanation.

It’s sad really but I hope for you, it will change. I see a lot of grass root people doing some work.

Expand full comment
Ohio Barbarian's avatar

40% of us don't vote for a reason--nearly ALL our politicians are bought. It would be more honest if they were required to wear the logos of all the corporations and billionaires who paid them by campaign donations on their jackets.

It will take a Second American Revolution to change that. I know it's a scary thought, but we have an oligarchy now, and oligarchies tend to be very unjust things that are often overthrown by popular revolutions.

Aristotle noticed that a long time ago.

Expand full comment
Boguslawa El Cheikh's avatar

Thank you for your explanation. From abroad I start to think the elections are just a show so instead of concentrating on real issues the people get distracted by sham choice although I would still vote but 3th party. I did in last Polish and Eu election and decided to vote for people who really care.

And Europe is not better. I think you are right although it’s scary think. And I suppose this oligarchs will bring it on themselves with their complete disregard for human life and right.

Expand full comment
Fargeen1's avatar

How laughably deluded and hateful you are… not for opposing Harris per se, just for cheering on the opposite side when he and it represent the very worst fascist tendencies on offer in our fading republic… and for complete capitulation to things like Bibi’s genocidal ambitions (since tRump is all about lunatic Zionism), your supercilious and transparent contempt for *actual* working people, for women, and for anyone else marginalized in this sick polity of ours.

Congratulations on your hilarious conflation of the perfect with the good. I look forward to savoring your hot tears of impotent rage when Kamala steamrolls the orange idiot into the ground. :-D

Expand full comment
Ohio Barbarian's avatar

You know, I thought about just blocking you for your displays of Democult projection, but I'll leave this one up. That way, when the election results come in, I can point to the scoreboard.

The fact that you accuse me of CHEERING for Trump is what gives you away, you know. Saying he is objectively the lesser evil for me and mine doesn't even mean I'm going to vote for him, which I'm not. You really should feel foolish, but I know that is prevented by your condition, so it's all good.

Expand full comment
Fargeen1's avatar

Nice try at condescension. Gambit declined, however.

I never claimed that you personally were going to vote for the creature, but I think your past recent posts have shown at least a predilection for rooting for the most disruptive potential outcome… “accelerationist” strategy, etc. (Lenin addressed that pretty well in his “Left-wing Communism - An Infantile Disorder” monograph). I have no doubt that you will proudly eschew voting for either major candidate, though.

As for my alleged “condition,” I’ve long since recognized that the phrase “Trump derangement syndrome“ is itself perhaps the most masterful example of gaslighting AND projection in current parlance. Every time the crazy orange fuck comes up with a new example of mindless gibbering - which is just about every day right now - any rational objection to seeing a serious contender for the American presidency displaying such insanity is labeled “derangement.”

I will worry about my own “condition.” You may wish to see to your own.

Expand full comment
Ohio Barbarian's avatar

Do I want to see a revolution? Oh, you’re damned right I would at this point.

Expand full comment
David Lentz's avatar

We are becoming a communist country

The pandemic created a shift in consciousness

So Kamala will win

Look to emigrate

Expand full comment
Ohio Barbarian's avatar

We can't become a communist country when most of us don't even know what communism is. That definitely includes you.

Expand full comment
David Lentz's avatar

Over 35 percent of GDP is now government

It’s coming to a theater near you lol

Expand full comment
Stephen Rowland's avatar

Oh, somewhere in this favoured land the sun is shining bright, Mighty Kamala has struck out 2nite.

Expand full comment
Gilgamech's avatar

My dude, you are the Nate Silver of the revolutionary hard left. Bravo! I will be getting all my data from right here, from now on.

Expand full comment
A. Joseph Layon's avatar

JFC, all she has to do is say she’ll enforce US law regarding weapons and aid.

That. Is. All.

And she fucking won’t do that.

Expand full comment
Fatima's avatar

Voting for Jill Stein, the only decent and moral candidate we have

Expand full comment