The Most Probable Immediate Future in the Middle East Will Satisfy Few

Thoughts on the Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran

Enough of the US Empire’s ruling oligarchy has decided that the Strait of Hormuz must reopen, and remain open, to force Trump to go around Israel and make enough of a deal with Iran to do that thing. (Below: container ships cruising past Bandar Abbas, Iran, today. Courtesy AP)

Israel will, of course, try its best to sabotage it by inflicting atrocities on Lebanese and Palestinian civilians. Iran will eventually retaliate forcibly against Israel.

Netanyahu will be inclined to gamble that he can force the US back into the war, but the odds are against him. Chances are Trump, and the AIPAC-dominated Congress, will continue to funnel money and weapons to Israel. The genocidal Zionist bastards will keep massacring Arabs, and Iran will keep pummeling Israel, but the oil and the urea and stuff will continue to flow.

If this pattern develops, Israel will be in very serious trouble for the simple reason that Iran has more missiles than the apartheid state has interceptors, and the US will simply be unable to keep them supplied.

I don’t know if the Israelis have even thought this through. They cannot win such a war of attrition with Iran. They assume the US is an inexhaustible cornucopia of money and arms, but it’s not. The limits have been reached. The Republicans know that if thousands of soldiers die in an unpopular war, or if parts of the States actually run out of gasoline, that their party will no longer exist.

Now, the Zionists will scream the loudest and force all of the authoritarian repression they can muster in all the countries of the US Empire, and they will have some successes, mostly in Europe, but those successes will be fleeting in most places. I’m not so sure about the UK—that place looks

right now.

Then, when the interceptors run out, and the casualties in southern Lebanon continue to mount, the Israelis will have to make whatever concessions are necessary so the Iranians will stop systematically destroying their infrastructure. Either that, or go nuclear. I don’t think they’ll go nuclear.

Until then, however, Israel is likely to keep escalating atrocities, Iran will respond, Israel will scream and bluster but tone down the atrocities for a bit while trying to persuade Trump to do something really stupid—like attempt to land ground troops—Trump will be constrained by oligarchs who want that Strait kept open, and then start the whole process over again with another atrocity.

Netanyahu wins so long as a “war” continues. The MIC wins until they really do run out of missiles, Big Oil and Big Agra don’t lose as much with the Strait kept open, the Gulf States can at least hope to survive, the Iranians will start to rebuild, Arabs in Lebanon and Palestine will continue to be abused and murdered, and Americans will see their standard of living continue to decline, just maybe at a slower rate.

I don’t know for how long they can keep that up. The Trump Administration will try for November, but eventually the pressure to rein in Israel will be so great they will be forced to cut off military aid, at least for awhile. Either that, or Israel really will run out of interceptors and they’ll have to agree to a ceasefire on Iranian terms.

If I’m right, there should be a Cabinet shakeup, and the Idiots Most Likely to Be Shitcanned are Pete Hegseth and Kash Patel. Note Rubio has been uncharacteristically quiet of late, and No Chance Vance is being presented as the “peaceful” side of Trump’s insane Admin, no doubt at Republican establishment urging.

And if the Israelis publish the dirt they have on Trump and take down a few billionaires with them, the oligarchy will survive, they’ll start looking for a new war somewhere else, and Palestine and Lebanon will continue to suffer until all American support for the genocidal maniacs of Israel finally ends.

My best guess at the moment is that will take at least nine months, and maybe as long as three or four years. That’s it, though, and I don’t think the Zionists can conceive of it happening so soon because they have won too much for far too long, and they seem to think they are indispensable to the Empire.

They’re not. No vassal state or ally ever is.

The Israelis probably won’t believe it until it happens, and then many will swarm over here, and we’ll be wondering where all those ICE goons are now that we actually need them.

We shall see. It’s going to be an interesting summer to say the least.

Thank you for reading, good day or night, and good luck.

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