A Tale of Two Valerys: Top Russian and Ukrainian Generals Negotiate to End Ukraine War

My synopsis of Seymour Hersh's article

Seymour Hersh has another report from his many well-connected sources in Washington. It seems that the top Ukrainian general, Valery Zaluzhny, and the top Russian general, Valery Gerasimov, are trying to find a way out of the mess of the Ukraine War.

It’s behind a paywall, of course, but I pay $50 a year so you don’t have to, and that’s very nice of me.

As Hersh writes, apparently Putin is willing to agree to a ceasefire in place while a treaty is negotiated:

The ingredient that triggered the private talks is a shared understanding that Putin would not object to a settlement that fixed borders according to where the troops were in place when the peace talks ended. Russia would be left with unchallenged control of Crimea and, pending an election to be held under martial law in March, with essential control of the four provinces, or oblasts, that Russia annexed last year: Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and the still embattled Kherson. In return—in a concession not foreseen—Russia, that is, Putin himself, would not object to Ukraine joining NATO. (emphasis mine)

Vladimir Putin is willing to let Ukraine join NATO? That’s a bombshell if true. There are two catches, according to Hersh’s sources in the US government:

A second American , whose information comes from overseas, confirmed that Russia might be willing to “allow Ukraine to join NATO,” but he added an important caveat. Under the tentative agreement, NATO would have to commit to “not place NATO troops on Ukrainian soil.” The agreement also would not allow NATO to place offensive weapons in Ukraine, but defensive weapons systems would be permitted. 

The American added that Russia would agree, were the proposed peace talks to succeed, to rejoin the Comprehensive Nucear-Test-Ban Treaty from which it recently withdrew. It also would agree to remove its military from areas near the Baltic states and Moldova.

If this is true, then it’s a HUGE concession from Putin to allow Ukraine into NATO. A neutral, denazified Ukraine has been a Russian precondition for peace since the war began. Why would Putin even consider such a thing? According to Hersh,

He told me that the proposed settlement has inherent logic because of the on-the-ground military realities. Russia, like Ukraine, he said, has been unable to launch penetration attacks deep across the war’s current front. “They tried but failed. Inefficient and wasteful as its military is, Russia can hold on to territories they have conquered in eastern Ukraine. And we are heading into the winter months, during which the mud and snow make any progress impossible.”

This sounds…incomplete. If Putin is willing to give up one of his original stated goals of the “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine, it has to be for more good reason than just the annual rasputitsa, or Mud Time. Why not wait for the ground to freeze or for spring?

I can only speculate. I know that China really, really wants this war to end because it increases the danger of nuclear war, so they could have something to do with it. It could also be that Putin really isn’t genocidal imperialist maniac and doesn’t want to see more thousands of Russian be killed or maimed in a nasty, World War I-style war if he can find a way out.

Or, it could be that Vladimir Putin really wants to put the world back on the path to nuclear disarmament instead of nuclear annihilation, and that there are US Empire officials sane enough to want the same thing.

As for internal Ukrainian politics with regard to this potential deal, it appears the biggest obstacle is Zelensky himself, but, as Hersh writes,

The American official said that Zelensky has been told that “this is a military-to-military problem to solve and the talks will go on with or without you.” If necessary.  the American official told me, “We can finance his voyage to the Caribbean.”

I said a week ago that there will likely be a ceasefire in Ukraine by Christmas. If Hersh’s sources are correct, and they usually are, then it’s only more likely now.

We can only hope.