The Tuesday Follies: The Election is Trump's to Lose

Electoral College Map

Labor Day has come and gone. Any honeymoon for Kamala Harris is fading into a vague memory of a dream, and one of the most unimpressive debates in the history of presidential debates is mercifully behind us.

Here’s my Electoral College map as of today.

Dark blue or red is a 10% plus lead for either Harris or Trump, respectively. Mid-tones are 5-9%, light blue or pink 1 to 4.9. Michigan is closer than that, per Real Clear Politics polling averages plus my own little formula in a few states.

The good news for Harris is that her pick of Walz as VP seems to have locked in Minnesota and Virginia, where Trump was even or ahead of Biden, and pulled a little ahead in Nevada.

The good news for Trump is that he has gained some in Arizona, and is holding narrow but steady leads in North Carolina, Georgia, and all-important Pennsylvania.

Wisconsin is the only state where my map differs sharply from the mainstream pundits. That is because the Trump vote there was underestimated by everybody in both 2016 and 2020 by around 4 to 5 points, which is significant. I won’t give Harris an edge there unless she has at least a 4 point lead, and she doesn’t.

In short, the debate, if you’re feeling generous and want to call it that, didn’t move the needle much at all.

In order for Harris to win without Pennsylvania and North Carolina, which I think is increasingly unlikely, she must win Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan. Of those four states, she now has a lead in only one.

It’s certainly not impossible for Harris to win, but Election Day is only seven weeks away. There’s still time for an October surprise or for Trump to implode, but right now if I had to bet money I’d bet on Trump.

I’ll do another one of these in another couple of weeks unless there is a dramatic shift somewhere. I hope you find them useful, or at least interesting. Thank you for reading, good night, and good luck.

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