Nightmare Scenario for the Duopoly: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Libertarian for President

It's very possible

Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s campaign recently announced that he would be leaving the Democratic Party and making an independent run. A truly independent candidacy might not be much of a much, but there are lots of rumors that he has been in negotiations with the Libertarian Party.

The fact that the Libertarians, unlike the Greens, have announced no candidate yet lends some credence to these rumors, and sheer, political pragmatism says this is the way for RFK Jr. to go. Quite simply, the Libertarians already have ballot access in something like 46 states, while an independent run would have to start from scratch, not to mention overcome practically insurmountable obstacles thrown up by both legacy capitalist parties.

If he does run under the Libertarian banner next year, all the standard electoral calculus goes out the window faster than Putin can have an opponent defenestrated from a tall building.

For one thing, Kennedy has a long track record of opposing things like authoritarian Covid mandates, imperial war, and attacks on the civil liberties guaranteed Americans by the Bill of Rights.

For another, he’s a Kennedy. Practically all Americans know the name, and the mythos of JFK and RFK still runs strong and deep in the currents of American politics. That alone guarantees more than 5% of the vote next November if RFK Jr. gets enough ballot access, and the Libertarian Party would get federal matching funds for its next campaign. Win-win for both right there.

But the raspy-voiced Kennedy could do far better than that in today’s climate. He’s intelligent, quick on his feet, and if he made the debate stage(my best guess is his opponents will be Donald Trump and Gavin Newsom), he would more than hold his own against the carnival barker and the good-haired tool of the oligarchy from California.

He’d have to get there first. The criteria for making it to the general election debate stage are 1) Ballot access in enough states to win the Electoral College, and 2) Polling at least 15% nationally.

Arguably, the only way RFK Jr. is guaranteed to meet the first condition is to run on the Libertarian ticket, which would only help him reach the second one faster. If he does, his name, bearing, intelligence, and the mythos of the Kennedys could deliver the best performance for a third party candidate since at least 1992, and maybe 1964, depending on the situation 13 months from now.

I don’t think the oligarchy would ever allow Kennedy to actually win, but a strong run might just break the two party duopoly by garnering votes from those who normally don’t vote and despise both parties for excellent reasons, and by siphoning votes from both the Democrat and from, presumably, Trump.

MSNBC has had several stories over the last few months arguing that RFK Jr. would hurt Trump far more than Biden(who ain’t gonna be the nominee, folks, he just ain’t) because of RFK’s stance on mandatory vaccines. That’s undoubtedly true with the cultist Vote Blue No Matter Who voters, but it’s definitely NOT true with everyone else who might consider voting for the Blue against Trump.

A relatively small percentage of them will no doubt vote for Cornel West in spite of his lackluster campaign that will never directly paint Democrats as the enemies of the people, which their actions and inactions have already proven them to be. Some have given up on voting altogether and can’t be motivated to vote. Some will vote for Trump. But many would vote for a freaking KENNEDY, if for nothing else just to raise a large middle finger to the Democrats who have consistently betrayed them since at least 1993.

As for Trump voters, well, the Donald has a large minority of very dedicated folks who will stick with him. I just don’t think Kennedy would ever hurt Trump more than the Democrat for the simple reason that the Kennedy name is a Democratic Party icon, not a Republican one. I could be wrong, but I doubt that very much.

Now, here come the ifs. If Kennedy gets the ballot access he needs, and when the Democratic nominee is another plastic, warmongering Clintonite Fascist like Newsom, Robert F. Kennedy could break the two party duopoly going forward and might even shatter the Democratic Party to such an extent that it goes the way of the Whigs in another election cycle or two.

It’s very possible, which is why the liberal media is doing all they can to either dismiss or smear RFK Jr. I just hope Kennedy goes for it in the most effective way possible, which would be to run as a left-Libertarian. Anything to break the duopoly.

Thank you for reading, and I hope your weather today is as pleasant as Ohio’s. Happy October!