An Analogy to Understand the China-Taiwan Relationship

Or two systems, one nation, American-style

In order for Americans to understand how the People’s Republic of China regards the Republic of China aka Taiwan, it might be helpful to rewrite some American and Chinese history to do a bit of a role-reversal.

Suppose that the Confederacy not only won the American Civil War in the 1860s, but subsequently dominated the government of what was left of the Union.

Suppose that sometime in the late 1800s, the Confederacy annexed Hawaii.

Suppose further that sometime in the 1940s, there was a revolution in the Union and a civil war broke out between the new Northern government and the old Southern one, and that it ended with the complete conquest of the Confederacy by the Union in the continental United States.

Suppose that Confederate leaders saw this coming, and evacuated the government and as many people as they could to Hawaii, and declared themselves the legitimate government of the entire United States. The revolutionary US also claimed to be the legal government and Hawaii, but was unable to take it because the Chinese Empire had survived and thrived and sent its superior navy to protect the remnant of the Confederacy for its own reasons.

A few decades go by, and China and the mainland American government decide on a rapprochement, sign a trade deal, and China recognizes the mainland American government as the legitimate one in the United Nations and to only provide limited weapons to the Confederates. In return, the mainland government agrees not to try to take the islands by force.

Then another few decades go by, and the Chinese decide to break that agreement, arm Hawaii to the teeth, and urge separatist elements there to declare an independent country, even though their economy and military power are clearly on the wane. What would a United States on the rise as an economically and militarily do?

Supposing both sides had nuclear weapons, I think it’s a pretty fair bet to say the mainland American government would protest quite strenuously, and most of the world would sympathize with it. Or maybe we’d risk a war and invade Hawaii anyway.

That’s what we’re seeing in Taiwan right now, except that the players are different. It’s not that difficult. The People’s Republic has international law AND several formal agreement with the US government on its side. To pretend otherwise is just that—pretense.