2022 Senate Elections: Polls Swing Towards a Republican Majority

Just in the last week, the polls have started trending towards the Republicans in every close Senate race. Given the fact that most polls have undersampled Republican voters in every election from 2016 on, this spells doom for the Democratic majority in the Senate that failed to deliver on every Dem campaign promise to the working and barely middle class.

Let’s look at some of the closest races, starting in the West.

In Nevada. the first term Latinx Democrat appears is going down as Latinos are abandoning her because she hasn’t done squat for them. Plus I’m sure a lot were turned off by how the Party rigged the primary after they had gotten out the vote and delivered Nevada for Bernie Sanders. They may have voted for Cortez-Masto six years ago, but they won’t turn out this year.

In Arizona, largely due to to the surging populist Republican gubernatorial candidate, Kelli Lake, the Republican Senate candidate’s numbers are going up and the astronaut Democrat’s are shrinking. Will it be enough? I don’t know. Arizona’s weird, anyway. I have this one as a tossup now. Just a week ago, I thought Kelly had it in the bag. Oops.

In Ohio, a flood of Trumpian money and a dearth of the same from the DNC were already sinking Paul Ryan. Lately, he has taken to airing ads appealing to Republican voters because JD Vance has sometimes sharply disagreed with Donald Trump. For example, he refused to get on the 2020 election was stolen bandwagon. Anyway, this tactic certainly won’t drive voters more likely to vote for the Democrat to the polls, and is doomed to failure amongst Republicans. The biggest poll shift, however, came after the last debate, when Ryan said nuclear war could be prepared for and managed while Vance said it was a thing to be avoided.

Go figure.

In Pennsylvania, where voters are faced with the choice of a Trump-endorsed, carpetbagging TV celebrity doctor who bears the shortened name of a medieval Turkish conqueror and a lying neoliberal warmongering stroke victim, the polls are all over the place, but Insider Advantage had Oz up by a smidgeon just the other day. Given the fact that Republican voters have been consistently undercounted in the Keystone State by nearly every polling firm since 2016, I now think Oz will probably win.

Georgians have a similar quandary, an obviously brain-damaged ex-football player running against a first term Democrat Senator who was elected on Biden’s promise to send “$2000 checks flying out the door” if he won. The jock has been slowly gaining ground. Abrams is already toast in her second(or is it third?) quest for the governor’s mansion. Warnock went along with Biden’s lies. I think Georgia voters will punish him by electing a real moron in his stead.

On the bright side, Walker’s Senate speeches will be preserved for posterity as a stark sign of a system whose contradictions are making it unravel.

I’ll check in again before the election if there are any more shifts, and maybe just for fun even if there are not.